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Predictors of Guideline Treatment Nonadherence and the Impact on Survival in Patients With Colorectal Cancer

Robert B. Hines, Alina Barrett, Philip Twumasi-Ankrah, Dominique Broccoli, Kimberly K. Engelman, Joaquina Baranda, Elizabeth A. Ablah, Lisette Jacobson, Michelle Redmond, Wei Tu, and Tracie C. Collins

Background: This study investigated the effect of comorbidity, age, health insurance payer status, and race on the risk of patient nonadherence to NCCN Clinical Practice Guidelines in Oncology (NCCN Guidelines) for Colon and Rectal Cancers. In addition, the prognostic impact of NCCN treatment nonadherence on overall survival was assessed. Patients and Methods: Patients with CRC who received primary treatment at Memorial University Medical Center from 2003 to 2010 were eligible for this study. Modified Poisson regression was used to obtain risk ratios for the outcome of nonadherence with NCCN Guidelines. Hazard ratios (HRs) for the relative risk of death from all causes were obtained through Cox regression. Results: Guideline-adherent treatment was received by 82.7% of patients. Moderate/severe comorbidity, being uninsured, having rectal cancer, older age, and increasing tumor stage were associated with increased risks of receiving nonadherent treatment. Treatment nonadherence was associated with 3.6 times the risk of death (HR, 3.55; 95% CI, 2.16–5.85) in the first year after diagnosis and an 80% increased risk of death (HR, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.14–2.83) in years 2 to 5. The detrimental effect of nonadherence declined with increasing comorbidity and varied according to age. Conclusions: Although medically justifiable reasons exist for deviating from NCCN Guidelines when treating patients with colorectal cancer (CRC), those who received nonadherent treatment had much higher risks of death, especially in the first year after diagnosis. This study’s results highlight the importance of cancer health services research to drive quality improvement efforts in cancer care for patients with CRC.

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Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting Postoperative Early Relapse and Survival in Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Yongzhu He, Laihui Luo, Renfeng Shan, Junlin Qian, Lifeng Cui, Zhao Wu, Shuju Tu, WenJian Zhang, Wei Lin, Hongtao Tang, Zeyu Huang, Zhigang Li, Shengping Mao, Hui Li, Zemin Hu, Liping Liu, Wei Shen, Kun He, and Yong Li

Background: Early relapse after hepatectomy presents a significant challenge in the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim of this study was to construct and validate a novel nomogram model for predicting early relapse and survival after hepatectomy for HCC. Patients and Methods: We conducted a large-scale, multicenter retrospective analysis of 1,505 patients with surgically treated HCC from 4 medical centers. All patients were randomly divided into either the training cohort (n=1,053) or the validation cohort (n=452) in a 7:3 ratio. A machine learning–based nomogram model for prediction of HCC was established by integrating multiple risk factors that influence early relapse and survival, which were identified from preoperative clinical data and postoperative pathologic characteristics of the patients. Results: The median time to early relapse was 7 months, whereas the median time from early relapse to death was only 19 months. The concordance indexes of the postoperative nomogram for predicting disease-free survival and overall survival were 0.741 and 0.739, respectively, with well-calibrated curves demonstrating good consistency between predicted and observed outcomes. Moreover, the accuracy and predictive performance of the postoperative nomograms were significantly superior to those of the preoperative nomogram and the other 7 HCC staging systems. The patients in the intermediate- and high-risk groups of the model had significantly higher probabilities of early and critical recurrence (P<.001), whereas those in the low-risk group had higher probabilities of late and local recurrence (P<.001). Conclusions: This postoperative nomogram model can better predict early recurrence and survival and can serve as a useful tool to guide clinical treatment decisions for patients with HCC.