Background: The increasing number of colorectal cancer (CRC) survivors need survival estimates that account for the time already survived. The aim of this population-based study was to determine conditional survival, cure proportions, and time-to-cure (TTC) of patients with colon or rectal cancer. Materials and Methods: All patients with pathologic stage I–III CRC treated with endoscopy or surgery, diagnosed and registered in the Netherlands Cancer Registry between 1995 and 2016, and aged 18 to 99 years were included. Conditional survival was calculated for those diagnosed before and after 2007. Cure proportions were calculated using flexible parametric models. Results: A total of 175,384 patients with pathologic stage I (25%), II (38%), or III disease (37%) were included. Conditional 5-year survival of patients with stage I, II, and III colon cancer having survived 5 years was 98%, 94%, and 92%, respectively. For patients with stage I–III rectal cancer, this was 96%, 89%, and 85%, respectively. Statistical cure in patients with colon cancer was reached directly after diagnosis (stage I) to 6 years (stage III) after diagnosis depending on age, sex, and disease stage. Patients with rectal cancer reached cure 0.5 years after diagnosis (stage I) to 9 years after diagnosis (stage III). In 1995, approximately 42% to 46% of patients with stage III colon or rectal cancer, respectively, were considered cured, whereas in 2016 this percentage increased to 73% to 78%, respectively. Conclusions: The number of patients with CRC reaching cure has increased substantially over the years. This study’s results provide valuable insights into trends of CRC patient survival and are important for patients, clinicians, and policymakers.
Seyed M. Qaderi, Paul W. Dickman, Johannes H.W. de Wilt, and Rob H.A. Verhoeven
Marieke Pape, Steven C. Kuijper, Pauline A.J. Vissers, Laurens V. Beerepoot, Geert-Jan Creemers, Hanneke W.M. van Laarhoven, and Rob H.A. Verhoeven
Background: In recent years, clinical trials have shown improved survival of patients with metastatic esophageal or gastric cancer. The number of patients participating in clinical trials is limited, and survival improvements observed from clinical trials are unrepresentative for the full population. The aim of our study was to assess trends in survival for the best-case, typical, and worst-case scenarios in patients with metastatic esophageal or gastric cancer. Methods: We selected patients with metastatic esophageal or gastric cancer diagnosed between 2006 and 2020 from the nationwide Netherlands Cancer Registry. Survival was calculated for different percentiles of the survival curve for each incidence year (eg, the 10th percentile [p10] represents the top 10% of patients with the best survival): p10 (best-case), p25 (upper-typical), p50 (median), p75 (lower-typical), and p90 (worst-case). Weighted linear regression analyses were performed to test whether changes in survival were significant. Results: The overall median survival between 2006 and 2020 remained unchanged for patients with esophageal cancer (n=10,448; from 5.2 to 5.2 months, respectively; P=.06) and improved for patients with gastric cancer (n=10,512; from 3.5 to 4.3 months, respectively; P=.001). For patients with esophageal cancer, survival for the best-case scenario (p10; best 10% of patients) significantly improved from 17.2 to 21.0 months (P=.006). For patients with gastric cancer, survival significantly improved for the best-case scenario (p10) from 15.9 to 23.5 months (P<.001) and the upper-typical scenario (p25) scenario improved from 7.9 to 9.9 months (P<.001). Conclusions: Despite significant survival improvements in clinical trials, survival improvements were not observed for the majority of patients treated in daily clinical practice. An increase in survival was only observed for patients with the best prognosis.
Willemieke P.M. Dijksterhuis, Anouk E.J. Latenstein, Jessy Joy van Kleef, Rob H.A. Verhoeven, Jeanne H.M. de Vries, Marije Slingerland, Elles Steenhagen, Joos Heisterkamp, Liesbeth M. Timmermans, Marian A.E. de van der Schueren, Martijn G.H. van Oijen, Sandra Beijer, and Hanneke W.M. van Laarhoven
Background: Cachexia is common in patients with esophagogastric cancer and is associated with increased mortality. Nutritional screening and dietetic interventions can be helpful in preventing evolvement of cachexia. Our aim was to study the real-world prevalence and prognostic value of pretreatment cachexia on overall survival (OS) using patient-reported weight loss, and to explore dietetic interventions in esophagogastric cancer. Materials and Methods: Patients with esophagogastric cancer (2015–2018), regardless of disease stage, who participated in the Prospective Observational Cohort Study of Esophageal-Gastric Cancer Patients (POCOP) and completed patient-reported outcome measures were included. Data on weight loss and dietetic interventions were retrieved from questionnaires before start of treatment (baseline) and 3 months thereafter. Additional patient data were obtained from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Cachexia was defined as self-reported >5% half-year body weight loss at baseline or >2% in patients with a body mass index (BMI) <20 kg/m2 according to the Fearon criteria. The association between cachexia and OS was analyzed using multivariable Cox proportional hazard analyses adjusted for sex, age, performance status, comorbidities, primary tumor location, disease stage, histology, and treatment strategy. Results: Of 406 included patients, 48% had pretreatment cachexia, of whom 65% were referred for dietetic consultation at baseline. The proportion of patients with cachexia was the highest among those who received palliative chemotherapy (59%) or best supportive care (67%). Cachexia was associated with decreased OS (hazard ratio, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.11–2.09). Median weight loss after 3-month follow-up was lower in patients with cachexia who were referred to a dietician at baseline compared with those who were not (0% vs 2%; P=.047). Conclusions: Nearly half of patients with esophagogastric cancer have pretreatment cachexia. Dietetic consultation at baseline was not reported in more than one-third of the patients with cachexia. Because cachexia was independently associated with decreased survival, improving nutritional screening and referral for dietetic consultation are warranted to prevent further deterioration of malnutrition and mortality.
Héctor G. van den Boorn, Ameen Abu-Hanna, Nadia Haj Mohammad, Maarten C.C.M. Hulshof, Suzanne S. Gisbertz, Bastiaan R. Klarenbeek, Marije Slingerland, Laurens V. Beerepoot, Tom Rozema, Mirjam A.G. Sprangers, Rob H.A. Verhoeven, Martijn G.H. van Oijen, Koos H. Zwinderman, and Hanneke W.M. van Laarhoven
Background: Personalized prediction of treatment outcomes can aid patients with cancer when deciding on treatment options. Existing prediction models for esophageal and gastric cancer, however, have mostly been developed for survival prediction after surgery (ie, when treatment has already been completed). Furthermore, prediction models for patients with metastatic cancer are scarce. The aim of this study was to develop prediction models of overall survival at diagnosis for patients with potentially curable and metastatic esophageal and gastric cancer (the SOURCE study). Methods: Data from 13,080 patients with esophageal or gastric cancer diagnosed in 2015 through 2018 were retrieved from the prospective Netherlands Cancer Registry. Four Cox proportional hazards regression models were created for patients with potentially curable and metastatic esophageal or gastric cancer. Predictors, including treatment type, were selected using the Akaike information criterion. The models were validated with temporal cross-validation on their C-index and calibration. Results: The validated model’s C-index was 0.78 for potentially curable gastric cancer and 0.80 for potentially curable esophageal cancer. For the metastatic models, the c-indices were 0.72 and 0.73 for esophageal and gastric cancer, respectively. The 95% confidence interval of the calibration intercepts and slopes contain the values 0 and 1, respectively. Conclusions: The SOURCE prediction models show fair to good c-indices and an overall good calibration. The models are the first in esophageal and gastric cancer to predict survival at diagnosis for a variety of treatments. Future research is needed to demonstrate their value for shared decision-making in clinical practice.