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Background: In recent years, clinical trials have shown improved survival of patients with metastatic esophageal or gastric cancer. The number of patients participating in clinical trials is limited, and survival improvements observed from clinical trials are unrepresentative for the full population. The aim of our study was to assess trends in survival for the best-case, typical, and worst-case scenarios in patients with metastatic esophageal or gastric cancer. Methods: We selected patients with metastatic esophageal or gastric cancer diagnosed between 2006 and 2020 from the nationwide Netherlands Cancer Registry. Survival was calculated for different percentiles of the survival curve for each incidence year (eg, the 10th percentile [p10] represents the top 10% of patients with the best survival): p10 (best-case), p25 (upper-typical), p50 (median), p75 (lower-typical), and p90 (worst-case). Weighted linear regression analyses were performed to test whether changes in survival were significant. Results: The overall median survival between 2006 and 2020 remained unchanged for patients with esophageal cancer (n=10,448; from 5.2 to 5.2 months, respectively; P=.06) and improved for patients with gastric cancer (n=10,512; from 3.5 to 4.3 months, respectively; P=.001). For patients with esophageal cancer, survival for the best-case scenario (p10; best 10% of patients) significantly improved from 17.2 to 21.0 months (P=.006). For patients with gastric cancer, survival significantly improved for the best-case scenario (p10) from 15.9 to 23.5 months (P<.001) and the upper-typical scenario (p25) scenario improved from 7.9 to 9.9 months (P<.001). Conclusions: Despite significant survival improvements in clinical trials, survival improvements were not observed for the majority of patients treated in daily clinical practice. An increase in survival was only observed for patients with the best prognosis.

Background: Chemotherapy for various stages of gastroesophageal cancer (GEC) is often neurotoxic. Chemotherapy-induced peripheral neuropathy (CIPN) impairs health-related quality of life (HRQoL). This study investigates the incidence and severity of CIPN and its association with HRQoL in patients with GEC. Patients and Methods: Patients who received chemoradiotherapy or chemotherapy for GEC were identified from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Patient-reported data (measured using the EORTC QLQ-CIPN20 and EORTC QLQ-C30) were collected through the Prospective Observational Cohort Study of Esophageal-Gastric Cancer Patients (POCOP) at baseline and at 3, 6, 9, 12, 18, and 24 months after treatment initiation. Linear mixed effects models were constructed to assess CIPN and the correlation between CIPN and HRQoL was analyzed using Spearman’s correlation. Results: A total of 2,135 patients were included (chemoradiotherapy: 1,593; chemotherapy with curative intent: 295; palliative chemotherapy: 247). In all 3 treatment groups, CIPN significantly increased during treatment (adjusted mean score of CIPN at 6 months: chemoradiotherapy, 8.3 [baseline: 5.5]; chemotherapy with curative intent, 16.0 [baseline: 5.6]; palliative therapy, 25.4 [baseline: 10.7]). For chemoradiotherapy, the adjusted mean score continued to increase after treatment (24 months: 11.2). For chemotherapy with curative intent and palliative therapy, the adjusted mean score of CIPN decreased after treatment but did not return to baseline values. CIPN was negatively correlated with HRQoL in all treatment groups, although significance and strength of the correlation differed over time. Conclusions: Because of the poor prognosis of GEC, it is essential to consider side effects of (neurotoxic) treatment. The high prevalence and association with HRQoL indicate the need for early recognition of CIPN.

Background: Personalized prediction of treatment outcomes can aid patients with cancer when deciding on treatment options. Existing prediction models for esophageal and gastric cancer, however, have mostly been developed for survival prediction after surgery (ie, when treatment has already been completed). Furthermore, prediction models for patients with metastatic cancer are scarce. The aim of this study was to develop prediction models of overall survival at diagnosis for patients with potentially curable and metastatic esophageal and gastric cancer (the SOURCE study). Methods: Data from 13,080 patients with esophageal or gastric cancer diagnosed in 2015 through 2018 were retrieved from the prospective Netherlands Cancer Registry. Four Cox proportional hazards regression models were created for patients with potentially curable and metastatic esophageal or gastric cancer. Predictors, including treatment type, were selected using the Akaike information criterion. The models were validated with temporal cross-validation on their C-index and calibration. Results: The validated model’s C-index was 0.78 for potentially curable gastric cancer and 0.80 for potentially curable esophageal cancer. For the metastatic models, the c-indices were 0.72 and 0.73 for esophageal and gastric cancer, respectively. The 95% confidence interval of the calibration intercepts and slopes contain the values 0 and 1, respectively. Conclusions: The SOURCE prediction models show fair to good c-indices and an overall good calibration. The models are the first in esophageal and gastric cancer to predict survival at diagnosis for a variety of treatments. Future research is needed to demonstrate their value for shared decision-making in clinical practice.